And even then - in the event that (what's left of) the storm finally does blow over - I don't imagine this decade blossoming into one of the great ages of Western love for Russia, or Western hope or trust in Russia. Indeed, even among those on our side who wish her well, or have no particular beef with Moscow, there don't seem to be many who have any great faith in her - what shall we call it? - democratic potential, or (geo)political versatility. In short, I haven't noticed many who believe that Moscow is capable of doing anything really novel or surprising, and least of all on the geo-economic and geopolitical fronts. I mean, what are the options, right? Russia + China - USA. Russia + China + Germany - rest of Western Europe/USA. Russia + China + Europe + Iran - Saudi Arabia. Or even + Saudi Arabia. The possibilities are far from endless. Nor even terribly interesting. Unless, of course, one's aim is to enhance the prospects of some new strains of pandemic spreading even faster throughout Euro-Asia.
But most discouraging of all, I find, are those on both sides, pro- and anti-, who believe that any Russia, good or bad, authoritarian or liberal democratic, is by nature condemned to be a behemoth - i.e., an empire and hegemon. And that that holds true no matter how far she may shrink to her so-called natural, "non-imperial" boundaries. In essence, for her to cease being a beast would be to cease to exist.
I don't know if that's true. I sincerely hope it is not, and I most emphatically do not want Russia to cease to exist. Or even shrink to unrecognizable borders. One thing I'm all but sure of, however:
The more Russia keeps on trying to imitate, rival, envy, model herself after or compete with certain other (more or less stupid as well as brutal) behemoths - of which I count four as the principals - the more she continues to dream of being, say, a Counter-USA, or Co-China, or rival Europe or Saudi-foil or whatever, the more she is guaranteed to make a royal - or rather imperial - ass of herself. If not some yet more obnoxious and destructive species of animal.
Now it may be that she has no choice but to remain, or become, a hegemon of one kind or another; or else deconstruct. Personally I doubt it, but either way: better a smart ass than a dumb grizzly. By all means let her be the kind of intelligent empire that knows how to do something really useful. The kind of subtle, patient and respectful hegemon that knows how to cultivate what has seemed like a lost - if not dead-and-buried - imperial art, since at least the end of the Cold War. Or more likely, since the geopolitical eclipse of the British Commonwealth in the 1950s. (Bearing in mind that even during that decade, what was left of the British Empire comported itself anything but honorably in countries like Egypt, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan.)
I'm thinking of the kind of relative giant who knows how to stand in the breach and intercede for the relative pygmies. Who knows how to protect and buckler, to bolster and rally the common interests of certain smaller, rather less gaudy, bombastic and pretentious nations. Including not a few in Europe, Asia and Oceania. And in particular those nations that, in a sane world, would have every wish to go on trading with the likes of a USA, or an EU, or PRC or KSA, but have absolutely no desire to be swallowed up or partitioned, hegemonized or globalized by ANY of them. Much less pandemicized by them.
In short, here is what Russia needs to do, it seems to me, if she plans to be a sensible, measured, more or less humane sort of hegemon. As distinct from that Opposite Kind we've been overblessed with, over this past generation, across virtually every continent of the globe. And about whose occupations the Middle East in particular could write volumes.
She needs to secure - as opposed to enticing or dallying or playing around with - the good will and trust of a certain kind of niche country. I.e., the sort of country that gladly sees the point of being on good terms with a good-natured behemoth, or two. Perhaps even three. But has no wish to be either the pawn or the plaything, much less the meal, of four merciless Leviathans.
Of course I can't predict how big a niche it may turn out to be, or how many such countries Russia is likely to find. But right off the top of my head? - and especially in light of certain still-unfolding "global health" events - I'd say there are tons of them.
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